中诚信国际上调泰国信用级别至Ag-，评级展望维持稳定

g-，评级展望维持稳定

CCXI UpgradesThailand's Ratings to Ag- from BBBg+ with Stable Outlook 

北京时间3月8日，中诚信国际发布公告，g+上调至Ag-，评级展望维持稳定。

Beijing, March 8—China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as CCXI) announced that it would upgrade the sovereign credit rating of Thailand to Ag- from BBBg+, outlook stable.

中诚信国际认为,：（1）近年来泰国经济增速加快；（2）政府财政赤字情况逐年向好；（3）对外偿付能力持续增强。同时，值得关注的因素主要包括：（1）国内政局的不稳定性；（2）家庭债务偏高；（3） “中等收入陷阱”问题长期存在。

CCXI’s decision to upgrade Thailand’s rating was driven by the following factors: firstly, Thailand’s economic growth has further accelerated in recent years; secondly, government financial deficit is narrowing year-on-year; thirdly, external solvency keeps strengthening.On the other hand, attention should be paid to the factors below: firstly, thestability of domestic political situation remains uncertain; secondly,household debt is on the high side; thirdly, long standing “middle income trap”.

泰国经济实力适中，经济结构多元化，近年来经济增长速度逐渐加快。，2016年进一步上升至3.2%。服务业发展向好和政府大力发展基础设施建设成为泰国经济增长的主要推动力。其中受益于旅游业的蓬勃发展，服务业收入保持稳健的增长态势。此外，泰国常年保持稳定的低通胀水平，自2014年起稳定在0%-1%的目标范围内。然而，对于泰国人均收入水平不高以及长期存在的“中等收入陷阱”问题仍需保持关注。

With moderate economic strength and diversified economic structure, Thailand’s economic growth has further accelerated in recent years. Thailand’s real GDP growths remain around 3% inlate years except for 2014, and the ratio rises up to 3.2% in 2016. The development of service industry and the government's strong support for infrastructure constructions have become the driving forces of Thailand's economic growth. Thanks to the booming tourism industry, income growth from service industry has remained steady. In addition, Thailand's inflation level has been low and stable, within the target range of 0%-1% since 2014. However,CCXI will keep focusing on the low GDP per capita and the long-standing"middle-income trap" in Thailand.

泰国政府财政赤字情况逐年向好，债务负担处于可控水平。泰国一般政府财政余额占GDP比重长期控制在-1%至-2%之间，且自2014年以来有逐年降低的趋势。尽管财政支出和收入均有所增加，但财政收入增长更快，导致财政赤字占GDP比率持续收窄，预计2016年将继续收窄至0.8%。而2017年随着政府将义务教育学制的延长及对农业部门投入的增加，预计财政赤字将小幅回升，但仍处于同等级国家中较低水平。泰国政府债务占GDP比重较低，常年维持在30%左右，由于政府财政支出的扩大导致自2014年起债务比率呈现缓慢上升态势，预计2017年将继续上行，但仍处于可控水平。

Thailand’s government financial deficit is improving year-on-year, and the debt burden is still manageable. Thai’s general government financial balance to GDP ratios have long been -1% to -2%, which display a downward trend since 2014. Faster government revenues growth compared with increasing expenditures has supported contractions of government financial deficit to GDP ratios, showing a moderate narrowing of 0.8% in 2016. We expect the government to continue running a fiscal deficit in 2017, since the government announced the extension of free state education in 2016 and more measures will be enacted aimed at supporting the agricultural sector in early 2017. But Thailand’s fiscal strength remains stronger than comparably ratedpeers. Thailand’s general government debt to GDP ratios remain about 30% inrecent years. Although debt ratios have continued to climb moderately under the military government since 2014 and will keep going up in 2017, debt still remains affordable.

泰国对外偿付能力继续增强，外汇储备长期充足。2013-2016年经常账户连续三年保持盈余，2016年受益于出口首次实现正增长和对于进口产品需求的降低，泰国经常账户余额持续增加。泰国的外汇储备长期充足，在同等级国家中位于前列。截至2016年末，外汇储备总额为1,977亿美元，充足的外汇储备能够对潜在的国际金融动荡产生的冲击提供足够的缓冲。

Thailand’s external solvency keeps strengthening, and foreign exchange reserves will be sufficient for a long time. The current account has recorded surpluses for three consecutive years to 2016. Benefits from its positive export growth for the first time and reduced demands for imported products, Thailand’s current account balance continues to grow in 2016. Thailand’s foreign exchange reserve is abundant in the long run with USD 197.7 billion by the end of 2016, which remains well-positioned relative to Ag--rated peers. Sufficient foreign exchange reserve will provide adequate buffers for potential international financial turbulence.

。巴育政府是否能够维持泰国政局的稳定，。目前泰国的家庭债务已有减缓趋势。2016年泰国家庭债务对GDP的比率由2014年末的85.9%降至81.0%，显示出金融机构审慎发放贷款和家庭谨慎举借新债务，部分缓解了对金融体系稳定性的担忧。

However, Thailand’s domestic political risk is moderate. Whether military government and the new king will propup Thai’s economic development and keep political stability remains uncertain. Meanwhile, there has been a slowdown on Thai’s household debt burden. The ratio of household debt to GDP falls from 85.9% in 2014 to 81.0% in 2016, showing that financial institutions are more cautious about newly issued debts, which somehow eases the anxiety over the stability of financial system.

未来可导致评级上调的因素包括：若泰国能够长期维护国内政局稳定，实行有效的刺激政策，促进经济恢复快速发展，有效控制家庭负债的高风险。

The credit rating may be upgraded for the following factors in the future: a long-term improvement in the political climate, a return to pre-political crisis trend economic growth rates by implementations of effective stimulus policies, or progress in managing household leverage to control high risk effectively.

未来可导致评级下调的因素包括：如果泰国政局再次发生动荡，进而对泰国经济产生严重负面影响，或是家庭负债过高使泰国金融系统稳定性面临流动性风险。

The credit rating may be down graded for the following factors in the future: a renewed escalation of political conflict, resulting in significant and potentially long-lasting effects on Thailand’s economy, or a significant rise in household debt, which would increase liquidity risk on the stability of Thailand’s financial system.

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