日本取代中国成为美国最大债权国

日本取代中国成为美国最大债权国

China cedes status as largest US creditor

China has ceded its status as America’s largest creditor nation to  Japan  after spending a large portion of its foreign exchange reserves to defend the renminbi.

在耗费很大一部分外汇储备保卫人民币汇率之后，中国把美国最大债权国的地位让给了日本。

Beijing’s ownership of US Treasuries fell by $41.3bn to $1.12tn in October, according to data from the US Treasury released on Thursday — the sixth straight month of decline. Japan’s holdings fell by $4.5bn to $1.13tn for the same period.

根据美国财政部周四发布的数据，截止10月底中国持有的美国国债减少了413亿美元，减至1.12万亿美元，为连续第6个月减少。同期，日本持有的美国国债减少了45亿美元，减至1.13万亿美元。

Thomas Simons, a money market economist with Jefferies who characterised the Chinese selling as “stunning”, noted that data suggested Beijing’s holdings actually fell by an even larger $67.1bn if Belgian sales were included in the numbers. “This is significant because it is widely speculated that China executes trades with Treasuries held in custody in Belgium,”he said.

杰富瑞(Jefferies)货币市场经济学家托马斯•西蒙斯(Thomas Simons)把中国减持美债形容为“惊人之举”。他指出，如果把通过比利时减持的部分计算在内，中国减持美国国债的实际幅度更大，为671亿美元。“此事意义重大，因为外界广泛推测，中国已开始交易托管于比利时的美国国债，”他说。

China’s foreign exchange holdings, much of which are invested in US Treasuries, have fallen about a quarter since early 2014 to just over $3tn. The decline has been driven partly by central bank selling of dollars to support the renminbi, which has fallen more than 15 per cent against the US  currency over the same period.

自2014年初以来，中国的外汇储备——大部分被投资于美国国债——已减少了约四分之一，目前略高于3万亿美元。部分原因在于中国央行卖出美元以支撑人民币。同期，人民币兑美元贬值幅度已高于15%。

The fall in Treasuries holdings is part of a larger campaign by Beijing to stem capital outflows. China has also recently introduced curbs on Chinese companies’ overseas acquisitions and dividend remittances by foreign investors.

减持美国国债，是北京方面发起的一项抑制资本外流的更大行动的一部分。近来，中国也对企业的海外收购和外国投资者的股息汇款进行了限制。

The holdings data predate the US presidential election result and subsequent sell-off in Treasury markets as investors braced for faster  US growth under president-elect Donald Trump. His surprise victory has sent the US dollar soaring, adding to the challenges faced by emerging market economies.

上述美国国债持有数据反映的是美国总统选举结果出来之前的情况，当时美国国债市场并未因为准备迎接当选总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)治下的美国增长提速而发生抛售。他出人意外的获胜，推动了美元汇率走高，加剧了新兴市场经济体的挑战。

The data also do not capture overseas trading activity by Chinese state-owned financial institutions. But the reversal —China  overtook  Japan  as the biggest holder of US Treasuries in 2008 — is likely to continue as pressure mounts on the renminbi after this week’s interest rate rise by the US Federal Reserve.

该数据也没有包括中国国有金融机构的海外交易行动。但这一逆转趋势——中国于2008年超过日本成为持有美国国债最多的国家——可能继续下去，因为本周美联储(Fed)加息之后人民币遭受更大压力。

“This pattern is unlikely to be reversed in the near future, especially with US and Chinese economic fortunes and monetary policy stances continuing to diverge,” said Eswar Prasad, economics professor at Cornell University and former IMF director for China.“The days of  China  providing abundant and cheap financing for US budget and current account deficits through the purchases of Treasury securities may have come to an end.”

“在不久的将来，当前趋势不大可能会逆转，尤其是在美国和中国的经济运势和货币政策立场继续分化的情况下，”美国康奈尔大学(Cornell University)经济学教授、前IMF中国部负责人埃斯瓦尔•普拉萨德(EswarPrasad)说。“中国购买美国国债，为美国预算和经常账户赤字提供充足的、廉价的融资的那种日子，也许已走到了尽头。”

China and Japan account for 37 per cent of the total $6tn of holdings tracked by the Treasury and Federal Reserve.

中国和日本持有的美国国债占美国财政部和美国联邦储备委员会6万亿美元总资产的37%以上。

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