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麦肯锡：未来奥运会和奥运遗产

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楼主

2017.2

作者：Bill Hanway AECOM执行副总裁兼全球体育部门主席

翻译：LM

校对、润色：谷雨

汲取经验：如何主办奥运会才能留下有益且丰富的奥运遗产

里约奥运会开幕式

一份详细周密的计划，一个着眼未来的眼光，都可能会助力这些城市举办好一次奥运会。

奥运会不仅仅是一场全球体育盛会。在民主制度国家中，奥林匹克运动会的举办不再取决于国家意志，而是需要建立在明确的社会原则和经济理由上。

1992，巴塞罗那奥运会的成功举办标志着这种全新模式的开始。城市和国家官员明确希望通过举办奥运会来使这座城市从停滞的后工业模式向旅游服务业中心加快转型。这届非常成功的奥运会促进了这一转变。

1992巴塞罗那奥运会

汲取了巴塞罗那奥运会的成功举办的经验，当伦敦取得2012年奥林匹克运动会主办权时，创造出一种“后奥运遗产”成为伦敦承办这次奥运会的思想核心。伦敦的组织者们不再把盛会的举办视为一个终点，而是认为这是对历史上曾臭名昭著的伦敦东区进行彻底改变的一种渠道。2003年，伦敦市长KenLivingstone这样说道，“奥林匹克将为这座城市带来自维多利亚时代以来的最大一次转变。”通常而言，一场成功奥林匹克运动会所消耗的经费会远远超出预算，而这些花销的经费并不是徒劳的，从早期举办的奥运会来看，奥运会所带来的长远影响也会产生积极的效用，包括建立新的房屋、学校、100公顷的伊丽莎白女王奥林匹克公园，以及各种经济活动的开展、运河的清理和重大基础设施的改造。

2012伦敦奥运会主会场

里约热内卢又是怎样呢？当里约2009年赢得了奥林匹克运动会的主办权，Eduardo Paes市长说里约既不像伦敦也不像北京，它将以自己一种独特的方式来完成此次奥运会的举办，包括使用高额度的私人融资。从某种角度上来看，这样做或许是对的，但是的确存在一些操作上的问题或不便。但我们可以欣赏到里约这座城市的美丽，热情好客的人民（里约居民），笑容满面的比赛观众，酣畅淋漓的体育表演，还有最后，强大的民族自豪感（和信念）。

北京奥运会

不过，值得注意的是，里约从一开始就以伦敦为榜样。当然，里约奥组委的一个高级顾问在伦敦申奥中起到了重要作用。实际上，，更多的是奥林匹克能为这座城市带来什么。而此次里约申奥着重强调四个奥林匹克场区中的两个都是处于城市的快速发展区，随着奥林匹克运动会的步伐加快，区域发展所需要的基础设施建设和房屋建设也将得以推进。在另一个区域，马拉卡纳，里约奥组委则制订了一系列的计划和措施来振兴其港口和周边地区的经济。评价者称赞其为优秀的遗产计划，特别指出里约奥运会注重与当地社会的融合。

原马拉卡纳球场

从巴西2009年赢得主办权到2016年举办奥运会，巴西面临了非常多的困难。我们将花去数年，甚至数十年去验证申奥中所说的奥运遗产是否变为现实。但很明显，这个国家多年来一直期望启动和完成的项目，在今天，奥运会帮助其实现了，包括修建一条新的地铁线，接近100公里的快速公交线路，17英里的轻轨系统，以及新的学校和健康诊所。“没有人说过奥运会将解决所有的城市问题”，，“但我们将奥运会当成了很好的借口，办成了很多的事情，这些都是市长们梦寐以求50年的夙愿”。

里约奥运公园赛事规划

焕然一新的马拉卡纳球场

这是否足够或可以做得更好对于巴西来说意义重大。但在奥林匹克的狭小世界里，伦敦和巴西率先创造了申奥方法，走出了一条属于自己的申奥道路，这些宝贵的经验和财富可供未来其他所有民主国家借鉴和吸收，那就是后奥运遗产的首选和中心目标。

从当前来看，社会上已经出现了一些“反奥运”的行为，所以采取这种策略及方法是有必要的。因为公众的反对，相当一部分的城市已经退出了2022和2024年的申奥竞争。除了举办两周的狂欢，而没有实质的利益驱使，投票者是不会支持奥运会的。

AECOM已经为奥运会服务超过了30年，包括为伦敦和里约提供总体规划。我们的工作不再是简单的实际问题，比如场馆设计、交通和人流，而是为了获得成功而对社会和经济问题进行分析进而确定合理的目标。一个成功的业务或项目必须同时在多个层面上发挥作用，包括奥运会的开展，后奥运时期的转型和发展以及奥运遗产的长期影响。

伦敦做得很好的一件事是对奥林匹克公园的基础设施进行了设计，并且将其定位于未来住房和商业发展。奥运会结束后，有分析显示，奥运公园里花的每一英镑中至少有75%变为了遗产使用，所以没有任何东西被拆掉也是合乎情理的。

温布利球场

四年过去，我们的判断已趋于成熟，我们可以去评判上届奥运会筹备的成功与否和衡量奥运会对周边房地产价值的影响大小。最近的分析显示，这些靠近奥林匹克公园中心地区的房价要比周边房价高出29个百分点，这意味着这样一种实质性的利益与奥运会的开展有着紧密的联系。以温布利房价为例，那里曾举办羽毛球、足球、艺术体操，其房价已经几乎翻倍，而温布利的周边地区房价的涨幅却低于30%。

在伊丽莎白公园西部边缘，Stratfod伦敦东区，价值24亿英镑的国际总部正在开发400万平方英尺的办公室，超过300套新的住宅，这也将带来25000个工作岗位。而且，一个新的文化中心正在形成，包括新Sadler’s Wells剧院，Victoria&Albert博物馆重建，以及学校，如伦敦时装学院和伦敦大学学院。另外2818套运动员公寓变为了市场和公寓的综合体，还有2000套即将投入使用。这些所有的设施和建筑都是为了奥运会的举办而服务的，它们通过交通彼此连接在一起，交织成一张网，而它们到达伦敦市中心只有不到15分钟的车程。东村可能也可能不是“伦敦最热门的代名词”，开发商说道，尽管还没有看到其他受奥运会影响的地区房价有一个显著的波动，但从综合投资角度来看这将成为一个热闹繁华的街区。

巴西创造了一项未来申奥城市可以模仿的传奇：她的财政模式。里约市政府拥有奥运会中心的120公顷土地，开发商通过建造场馆和其他建筑来换取土地。巴西对私人财政的依赖（根据计算约总数的57%），甚至超过了亚特兰大。有批评者认为这种模式导致私人财政和巴西有钱人获得大量的经济利益。但所有这一切，都需要时间给一个合理的答案。尽管，短期内，这种方法削减了公共资金的支出，并为未来运营创造了经济基础。事实上，它将公共风险转变成了私有风险。和所有现代奥运会一样，里约政府也从赞助商和转播权上收获了数十亿美元用以投入与奥运相关的建设，旨在提升和完善奥运会的基础设施。

巴西奥运公园2030年奥运遗产规划

AECOM作为2020年东京奥运会的一名顾问，尽管相对伦敦或里约奥运会的职权上有一定的局限性。但我们可以看见东京新任市长小池百合子（2016当选），正在用一种追求财政的可持续供给理念给奥运会带来一大亮点。努力降低办奥成本，同时解决“体育、经济、社会和环境的长期规划需要”，这是国际奥委会2020年议程的一大重点。举个例子，相比建造新的可持续场馆，东京将举办地定位在120公里外的现有场馆，篮球比赛也将在中心城区外举行。这个目标是十分明确的，就是通过激发潜在的经济活力来推进奥运遗产的实现。

这些奥运经历已经影响了AECOM在洛杉矶2014的申奥工作。这座城市申奥从近期的奥运会中吸取了很多经验。比如，洛杉矶奥运会将不再建设新的比赛场馆——所有的活动都将在现有场馆或临时场馆中进行。奥运村作为历史以来举办奥运的开支大项，而这座城市将不再建设。相反，运动员们将住在加州大学洛杉矶分校的学生宿舍中。所有的财政支出都将是私人融资，申奥委员会甚至计划盈余1.61亿美元。

1984洛杉矶奥运会

主办奥运会永远不是一档“物美价廉的买卖”，但这份价值41亿美元的申奥订单希望通过使用私人资金、奥运会产生的收入和场馆拥有者的承诺价格来提高配套设施，并希望此次奥运会能更多融入参赛运动员和观众的体验。与近年来许多的奥运会相比，洛杉矶预示将举办一个现代的，甚至朴素的奥运会。这也说明，至少部分说明，在这个基础上，公众成为坚定的申奥支持者，有数据表明，在今年年初的调查中至少88%的受访者在支持申奥。洛杉矶希望证明，举办一届相对低风险、低成本、高质量的奥运会是可能的。巴黎的申奥方案也类似于洛杉矶，其高度依赖现有和临时场馆，奥委会相关组织人员承诺每座场馆不是仅为奥运会而设立，在赛后，也会用于其他赛事及用途。

作为一名征战四届奥运的老将，我能体会到那种值得他们为此付出不计回报但屡遭挫败的感觉，因为我也曾和他们一样走过同样的路。就好比法律和香肠，把它们强行放在一起是不会产生有益的结果，奥运会各个项目也是如此。即便如此，我还是相信，城市建设者和体育组委会如果把时间和精力投入到往届申奥的经历中，去学习和挖掘，必将举办有益于社会的未来奥林匹克盛会。

原文如下：

Learning from experience: How hosting the Olympics canleave a positive legacy

Careful planning and an eye on the future can help thecities that host them.

Deciding to host the Olympic Games can no longer be aboutnational ego. In democratic countries, there has to be a clear social andeconomic rationale that goes beyond simply staging a global sports event.

In1992, Barcelona marked the beginning of this new approach. City and nationalofficials explicitly sought to use the Games as a way to accelerate thetransformation of the city from its postindustrial languor into a hub fortourism and services. Those very successful Games helped to do just that.

1992巴塞罗那奥运会

Learning from Barcelona’s achievement, when London won the right to host the 2012 Olympics, creating a post-Games legacy was at the heart of its thinking.Instead of hosting the event as an end in itself, London organizers conceivedof it as a way to regenerate the historically challenged East End. “The Olympics will bring the biggest single transformation of the city since theVictorian age,” London Mayor Ken Livingstone said in 2003. As is often the case, these Games went well over budget, but there are positive early indicators of lasting impact, with new housing,schools, and the 100-hectare Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park, as well as economic activity, cleaned-up canals, and significant infrastructure improvements.

2012伦敦奥运会主会场

What about Rio de Janeiro? When Rio won the right to host the Olympics in 2009,Mayor Eduardo Paes noted that Rio was not London or Beijing; it would do things its own way, including using a high degree of private financing. And he was right. Yes, there were some operational frustrations. But there was also the beauty of the city, the hospitality of the Cariocas (Rio’s residents), the smiling spectators, the exceptional athletic performances—and finally, the enormous sense of national pride (and relief).

It’sworth remembering, though, that Rio had the London example in mind from the start; indeed, one of Rio’s key advisers had played an important role in the London bid. In effect, Brazil’s leaders—and the bid had strong and deep political support—were thinking not so much about what the city could do forthe Olympics, but what the Olympics could do for the city. The bid emphasized that two of the four Olympic zones were in fast-growing areas of the city, ones that needed the infrastructure and housing that development associated with the Games could accelerate. In another zone, Maracaña, there were plans for revitalizing the port and surrounding areas. The evaluators praised the“excellent legacy plan,” with its emphasis on social integration.

早年间的马拉卡纳球场

Between 2009, when Brazil won the Games, and the 2016 Olympics, when it hosted them,Brazil faced many difficulties. It will be years, perhaps decades, before we know whether the legacies described in the bid come to pass. But it is clear that hosting the Games provided momentum for the country to start—and finish—projects that had been thought about for years, including a new subway line, almost 100 miles of rapid-bus lanes, and a 17-mile light-rail system,plus new schools and health clinics. “No one ever said the Olympics were going to solve all of the city’s problems,” Mayor Paes told the New York Times. “But we used the Games as a good excuse to get a lot of things done, things that have been the dream of mayors for 50 years.”

焕然一新的马拉卡纳球场

Whether it was enough or could have been done better matters enormously to Brazil. In the narrower world of the Olympics, though, what can be said is that the way London and Brazil developed their bids will be the way that all other democratic countries do so in the future—with post-Games legacies front and center.

That is necessary, because there does appear to be something of a backlash againstthe Olympics. A number of cities have pulled out of consideration for the 2022 and 2024 Games, due to public opposition. Without a conviction that there will be benefits beyond hosting a ripping two-week party, voters these days will not support the Olympics.

AECOM has worked on Olympics for more than 30 years, including delivering the masterplans for both London and Rio. Our work is no longer simply about practical concerns, such as venue design, transportation, and crowd flow. The process now has to encompass social and economic analysis to derive appropriate targets for success. A successful effort must work simultaneously at multiple levels—the Games, the post-Olympics transition, and the long-term legacy.

One thing London did well was to ensure that the infrastructure of the main Olympic Park was designed and located with future housing and commercial development in mind. Nothing had to be ripped up after the Games concluded; later analysis estimated that at least 75 percent of every British pound spent on the park had a legacy use.

Four years on, it is becoming possible to measure the success of the planning efforts and the impact on real-estate values in the neighborhoods near the Games. Recent analysis indicatesthat these hubs have outperformed surrounding areas by an average of 29 percent, suggesting a substantial Olympics-related benefit. Property values in Wembley, for example, where badminton, football, and rhythmic gymnastics took place, have almost doubled,compared with less than 30 percent for Wembley’s near neighbors.

温布利球场

On the western edge of Queen Elizabeth Park, the £2.4 billion International Quarter in the east London area of Stratford is developing 4 million squarefeet of offices, more than 300 new homes, and could bring in as many as 25,000jobs. A new cultural hub is also being developed with the new Sadler’s WellsTheatre, a Victoria and Albert Museum extension, along with academic anchors,such as the London College of Fashion and University College London. Inaddition, the 2,818 apartments built for the Athletes’ Village are now a mix of market and affordable rentals, with 2,000 more to come. All are well served by transit links built for the Games, with central London less than 15 minutes away. The East Village may or may not be “London’s hippest postcode,” as thedeveloper says, but the combined investments suggest that this will become alively and prosperous neighborhood, even though it has not seen the leap in real-estate values other Olympic-related areas have.

Brazil has already created one legacy that future bid cities might emulate: the way it designed the financing. The city of Rio owned the 120 hectares that were the center of the Games. Developers then built the venues and other structures in exchange for the land. Even more than Atlanta, Brazil relied on private-sector resources (which accounted for 57 percent of the total). There has been criticism of this model because of concerns that the private sector and richer Brazilians got too much of the economic benefit. All this will take time to determine. Even in the short term, though, this method reduced public-sector capital outlays and created an economic foundation for future maintenance. In effect, it flipped the risk from the public to the private sector. And as with all modern Olympics, Rio got billions of dollars in revenue from sponsorships and broadcast rights that helped pay for Games-related improvements.

For Tokyo 2020, AECOM is working as an adviser, although to a more limited extent than in London or Rio. What we are seeing is that Tokyo, driven by the new governor, Yuriko Koike (elected in 2016), is making changes with financial sustainability in mind. That is one of the priorities of the International Olympic Committee’s Agenda 2020, an effort to cut the costs of producing the Games while addressing “sporting, economic, social, and environmental long-termplanning needs.” Instead of building a new cycling venue, for example, Tokyo is locating this event in an existing facility 120 kilometers away; basketball will also take place outside the city center. The explicit aim is to improve the legacy outcomes by improving the underlying economics.

These experiences have influenced AECOM’s work on the Los Angeles 2024 bid. The city’s bid takes many of the lessons of the recent past as far as possible. For instance, Los Angeles will not be building any new venues—all events will take place in existing or temporary sites. In addition, the city will not build a new Olympic Village, historically a big expense; instead, athletes will stay in the dorms at University of California, Los Angeles. Financing will be entirely private. The bid committee even projects a surplus of $161 million.

Hosting an Olympics will never be cheap, but the idea of this $4.1 billion bid is touse private money, Games-generated revenues, and venue owners’ commitments toupgrade facilities while emphasizing the athlete and spectator experience.Compared with many recent Games, Los Angeles envisions a modest, even frugal,Olympics. And it is telling that, at least in part, on this basis, the public appears to be solidly in favor of it—88 percent of Los Angeles respondents approved of the bid in a poll earlier this year. Los Angeles wants to demonstrate that it is possible to host a relatively low-risk, low-cost,high-quality Olympics. The Paris bid is similar, relying heavily on existing or temporary venues; officials are promising that every venue will have a post-Games purpose.

1984洛杉矶奥运会

As a veteran of four Olympics, I understand and share the concerns about whether they are worth the cost and disruption. Like laws and sausage, seeing how the Games are put together is not always edifying. Even so, I believe that city and sports officials who take the time to learn the lessons of the past can develop future Games that are a positive force for their societies.

About the author(s)

Bill Hanway is an executive vice president and the global sports leader of AECOM.

配图来自网络